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November 26, 2025 at 19:03

Advanced Monthly Sales Report

Authored by MyEyze Finance Desk

Advance monthly retail and food services sales for September 2025 were $733.3 billion, up 0.2% (±0.4%) from August 2025 and up 4.3% (±0.5%) above September 2024 (U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Report, November 25 2025). The month-over-month gain is statistically indistinguishable from zero given the ±0.4% margin of error, indicating essentially flat real-volume spending after the back-to-school bump. The still-solid 4.3% year-over-year increase continues to reflect the resilience of the U.S. consumer despite elevated interest rates, sticky core inflation, and tariff-related uncertainty.

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Advance monthly retail and food services sales for September 2025 were $733.3 billion, up 0.2% (±0.4%) from August 2025 and up 4.3% (±0.5%) above September 2024 (U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Report, November 25 2025). The month-over-month gain is statistically indistinguishable from zero given the ±0.4% margin of error, indicating essentially flat real-volume spending after the back-to-school bump. The still-solid 4.3% year-over-year increase continues to reflect the resilience of the U.S. consumer despite elevated interest rates, sticky core inflation, and tariff-related uncertainty.
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MetricLevel (billions)MoM % ChangeYoY % Change
Total Retail & Food Services (seasonally adj.)$733.3+0.2% (±0.4%)+4.3% (±0.5%)
Retail Sales (excl. food services)—+0.1% (±0.5%)+3.9% (±0.5%)
Nonstore Retailers—Not reported in advance release+6.0% (±1.2%)

(Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report, November 25 2025)

The detailed 13-sector table (NAICS 441–453) that normally appears in every monthly release has not been published for September 2025 because of the partial government shutdown and associated processing delays.

Key Points

  • Consumer spending remains on a gentle but positive trajectory consistent with a soft-landing scenario.
  • Month-to-month stagnation is not alarming in context. September often sees a give-back after the August back-to-school surge.
  • Personal consumption expenditures will still contribute positively to the current quarter, helping offset weakness in manufacturing and residential investment
  • No evidence yet of cracking. There is still no sign in the aggregate data of the sharp pullback that would signal an imminent recession.
  • October and November advance estimates (normally due mid-month) remain completely unscheduled because of the continuing shutdown.
  • The 6.0% YoY growth in nonstore reinforces the ongoing digital shift. It suggests consumers are prioritizing convenient, value-driven channels (e.g., Amazon deals) over in-store discretionary buys, aligning with the "two-speed" dynamic.
The limited data we have for September 2025 show an American consumer who is neither accelerating nor collapsing — exactly the “goldilocks” outcome markets have priced for much of 2025. Until the detailed category and core control numbers are released (likely weeks from now), the headline 4.3% year-over-year growth remains the single most reliable signal: household spending continues to expand modestly in nominal terms and slightly in real terms, providing ongoing ballast to the broader economy. We will update this analysis the moment the Census Bureau publishes the full September tables or the October advance estimates.
U.S. Census Bureau Retail Sales Data
Attribution:Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report↗

Disclaimer

This content was created with formatting and assistance from AI-powered generative tools. While we strive for accuracy, this content may contain errors or omissions and should be independently verified.The final editorial review and oversight were conducted by humans.

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