U.S. Labor Market Snapshot — October 2025 JOLTS Review

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ October 2025 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released on December 9, 2025, shows a modest cooling in the U.S. labor market. Total nonfarm job openings fell slightly from 7.981 million in September to 7.744 million in October, a decline of 237,000. Hires also decreased, dropping from 5.450 million to 5.145 million, while voluntary separations, or quits, declined from 3.083 million to 2.924 million. Meanwhile, layoffs and discharges rose from 1.674 million to 1.859 million. Although these shifts indicate easing in labor demand and a minor uptick in firm caution, the month-to-month changes from September to October are mostly within normal bounds, consistent with the BLS’s characterization of the numbers as “little changed.” This suggests the labor market is gradually softening rather than experiencing a sharp contraction.

In the weeks leading up to the release, many forecasters had expected lower numbers. Job openings for October were projected around 7.2 million, with some models estimating closer to 7.13 million. The actual outcome of 7.744 million openings significantly exceeded these expectations by roughly 0.5–0.6 million, highlighting persistent underlying demand for labor despite the slight moderation. This gap may reflect delayed hiring intentions, firms maintaining vacancies while awaiting clearer economic signals, or ongoing skill mismatches that prevent openings from quickly converting into hires.

Another important aspect is the persistent gap between high openings and comparatively lower hires. This may indicate structural challenges, such as skill mismatches or difficulty finding candidates with the right qualifications. Additionally, fewer quits reduce upward pressure on wages, potentially easing inflationary pressures and moderating labor cost growth. These dynamics point to a labor market that is cooling slowly, consistent with a soft landing scenario rather than signaling a recession. The BLS’s description of the figures as “little changed” reinforces that the month-to-month shifts are within expected volatility ranges, underscoring that the overall labor market remains stable even amid these modest adjustments—though data collection was partially disrupted by the 43-day federal shutdown, leading to self-reported figures for September and a temporary suspension of alignment methodology for October, which may introduce some preliminary uncertainty ahead of final revisions.

In summary, the October 2025 JOLTS data reflect a labor market that is gradually slowing but remains strong. Job openings remain elevated, hires and quits are little changed, and layoffs and discharges were little changed overall. The difference between the actual numbers and pre-release forecasts highlights resilient demand for labor, while the relatively small month-to-month changes indicate normal fluctuations. Taken together, the data suggest a moderate cooling in the labor market, consistent with a soft landing scenario rather than a sharp downturn, and point to cautious but not panicked behavior among employers and employees alike.