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At the end of December, the New York Fed lent banks $74.6 billion to keep short-term rates from spiking. This was the largest year-end injection ever, signaling tighter money in the system. Smaller banks and everyday loans could feel the effects if cash gets tighter.
The scale and speed of accumulation of the U.S. government’s debt have crossed into territory many economists—and a growing number of investors—consider unsustainable. With borrowing increasing on multiple fronts, interest costs soaring, and signs that traditional buyers of U.S. debt may be pulling back, the fiscal foundations of the world’s largest economy look increasingly fragile. Below is a sober assessment of where things stand—and what the consequences could be if Washington does not act.
Federal deficits and debt are projected to hit record levels from 2025 to 2035, with Social Security, Medicare, and rising interest costs driving growth. Even with steady economic expansion, revenue gains are unlikely to keep pace, putting households, businesses, and the U.S. economy on an unsustainable fiscal path.
The economy is puttering along steadily with strong holiday shopping and cautious optimism for 2025. Prices are rising more slowly, wages are growing moderately, and jobs remain stable. Here's what this means for your wallet, work, and big purchases in plain English.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) offers a comprehensive view of the U.S. economic outlook, as seen by the central bank’s policymakers. It includes detailed forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and the path of the federal funds rate. This report dissects the latest projections, their methodology, risks, and implications for monetary policy and financial markets.
Money markets remain calm, spreads are tight, and the yield curve is positively sloped — consistent with steady growth and well-anchored inflation expectations.
The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 5–4 to maintain Bank Rate at 4%. Four members voted to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75%. CPI inflation is judged to have peaked... Inflation is likely to fall to close to 3% early next year before gradually returning towards the 2% target over the subsequent year.
The Bank of England's July 2025 Financial Stability Report checks the health of the UK's financial system, confirming it's strong enough to support everyday people and businesses amid global uncertainties. While banks are well-capitalized and households and firms are managing debts, risks from non-banks, cyber threats, and geopolitics require ongoing vigilance. The report highlights low insolvency rates and orderly markets as key positives.
The Federal Reserve's June 2025 Monetary Policy Report highlights moderated inflation at 2.1% PCE and a steady 4.2% unemployment rate, amid trade policy uncertainties. The FOMC kept rates at 4¼-4½%, projecting 1.4% GDP growth and 3.0% inflation for 2025. Balance sheet normalization continues slowly, with risks balanced but tilted downside for growth.